The international conference "Global economic outlook and impacts on commodities market 2024" was held on May 16, 2024, in Hanoi by Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam, in cooperation with Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).

This annual event, co-organized by the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), drew over 200 delegates and guests, attending both in person and via online streaming on digital platforms.

Prominent attendees included representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and other relevant ministries and departments. The MXV Board of Directors and trading members were also present, underscoring the event's significance within the trading community.

From the CME Group, notable speakers included Mr. Erik Norland, Managing Director and Chief Economist, and Mr. Sachin Patel, Executive Director of Metals. They were joined by other leading experts in commodity trading, enriching the event with their insights and expertise.

Additionally, the conference welcomed leaders and representatives from industry associations, universities, academies, businesses, and related organizations, fostering a diverse and comprehensive dialogue on commodity trading and market trends.

Overall view of the conference

The economy's bright spot lies in the commodity trading market.

During the conference, CME Group experts unanimously predicted a "soft landing" scenario for the world economy in 2024, with raw material prices expected to experience significant fluctuations.

There is an anticipation of a shift in investment cash flow from traditional channels to the commodity market, where profit margins are more favorable due to the strong movements of key commodities.

According to Mr. Erik Norland, the economy's outlook will become clearer in the second half of 2024, following the macroeconomic data from the first two quarters. This will lead to significant trends in the commodity trading market, particularly in the energy and precious metals sectors.

Mr. Erik Norland – Managing Director, Chief Economist of CME Group

In the initial four months of the year, the commodity trading market in Vietnam exhibited a remarkable level of activity. The trading volume at MXV experienced a notable surge of 18.4% in April 2024 compared to March 2024, and a substantial increase of 65% compared to April 2023. Furthermore, the cumulative trading volume during the first four months of 2024 at MXV witnessed a significant rise of 21.5% in comparison to the same period last year.

The average daily trading value reached an impressive 6,983 billion VND. Notably, on April 19, Vietnam recorded an all-time high trading value, reaching nearly 11,000 billion VND.

Mr. Erik Norland predicts that the volume of commodity trading worldwide, including Vietnam, is expected to continue its robust growth in the remaining half of the year.

Potential for trading metal commodities

Currently, MXV is interconnected with CME Group to facilitate the trading of such metal products as silver, platinum, and copper. The trading volume for these items has been steadily increasing, consistently ranking among the most traded items in Vietnam in recent quarters.

In April, platinum emerged as the second most traded commodity at MXV, representing 3.8% of the total trading volume.

While markets like agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and energy require thorough research on product characteristics, supply and demand dynamics, as well as weather and seasonal information; the metal market is considered relatively straightforward for investors to navigate.

According to Mr. Sachin Patel, "Macroeconomic data is frequently and openly updated through mass media channels. Economic trends are often forecasted months in advance and tend to change gradually, making trading in metal products a safer and more stable option compared to other markets."

Mr. Sachin Patel – Executive Director, Metals, APAC - CME Group

In addition, gold and silver are considered safe havens during economic downturns. Previously, investors had to have 8,250 USD to trade a standard silver contract, but now mini silver and micro silver contracts only require 4,125 and 1,650 USD, respectively. This shift will likely drive trading activities and provide a safe haven for investors in the near future.

During the conference, economic expert Ngo Tri Long stated: "Precious metals, such as gold, silver, and platinum, are traded on Commodity Exchanges like other commodities worldwide. With the current surge in gold prices, the demand for trading precious metal products is expected to rise significantly".

Huong Nguyen